Threats, negotiations and reality - the Democratic Convention...

I'm not a Democratic insider with secret knowledge, just someone who'd like to inject just a little common sense into the discussion... At the risk of stating the obvious...

The news these days is filled with all kinds of speculation on the possible end game for the HRC/BO competition. The one theme that seems to prevail in all of these stories is the threat, explicit or implicit, that HRC and her followers will make life miserable for BO if he doesn't do whatever...

But please take these threats with a grain of salt. There are some realities that supersede any threat of mayhem made.

1. Conventions are controlled by the one with the votes! If Obama has the most delegates (meaning the most votes) he will have the ability to control the outcomes of the convention. That does not mean that Camp Clinton can't make his life miserable - you can just take a look at the Senate to see what a determined minority can do - but at the end of the day, the one with the most votes wins. Also note, despite the rhetoric about Clinton having "almost" half the delegates, almost is not enough. If Obama has the majority of the votes and his delegates have discipline - they win. The only caveat is if somehow the Clinton camp gets to chair any of the important committees. That shouldn't happen.

The convention is the FIRST major test of Obama's ability to control and run the party. If he and his team can master that challenge it bodes well for the general election.

The control of the votes and the primary victory means that you effectively take control of the party. That means it is your job to safeguard the party and its processes until the next changing of the guard. Obama will have to find away to ensure a working coalition within the party. But there are all kinds of ways to do that besides capitulation. You could say the convention is his first test of governance. If he is sharp, he will be able to gather enough votes to ensure a working majority. If he is really good he will be able to gather enough votes (and support) to isolate what remaining dissenters that may appear. And if he is excellent, he will be able to assuage the hard feelings and bring his erstwhile adversaries to the table. You don't fight unless you have to - but if you have to, then you fight  to win!

The thing to watch is not who wins (that should be a foregone conclusion) - it is the ability of the Obama Camp to broker solutions and prevent open conflict. The question is can Obama win enough of the players and influential party members to minimize any ability of the minority to cause much mischief - AND to find a way to mollify and defuse any potential residual problems. The goal is to get your program in place and ensure that when the delegates head for the exits, they do so with a sense of unity and optimism about the election!

2. Seating MI and FL. The various arguments relating to seating the delegates from the rogue primary states must be measured against the party's long term need for structural integrity. Although it may make little difference to his ultimate Obama victory for this primary if the delegations were fully seated - it would mean a MAJOR future problem for the party. It would set the precedent that any state party could ignore the national rules and escape sanction simply by making a lot of noise. The Party cannot afford to set that precedent, no matter how much it might help to settle the immediate dispute. That said, Obama can afford to give ground - and I'm betting he will.

3.  Being on the losing side of a bruising convention fight is not a good position to be in - trust me on that. If you have no further ambitions within the party then it might not matter to you, but if you have any hopes for the future you cannot afford to create major rifts or major chaos. For all the apparent hostility, the Clintons and those around them are politicians with lots of experience - and lots of self interests. They do not want to be the ones who are responsible for trashing the Party. They will negotiate hard, they will win some concessions, but at the end of the day the worst thing they can do is offer little or no support for the general election campaign. It would be best if they gave enthusiastic and active support to the winner - but if they don't he can still win.

The one real threat to the Party/convention comes not from the Clintons, it comes from the non-professional supporters - rank and file if you will, who do not respond to the guidance of the candidates. It is the potential for havoc caused by the uninitiated but highly passionate followers, outside of the convention. The folks who are low on information, and don't understand the political dance, but who are ginned up by the sound bites and accusations. Those are the problem folks - and those are the ones neither camp can control. But being able to isolate and minimize them will ensure that they cannot do serious damage.